地震预测

地震预测（earthquake prediction）是预测一次地震发生的时间、地点和规模。地震学家目前仍无法预测地震的确切发生时间^[1]，然而对地下构造了解的进步，科学家能透过震灾危害度评估，提供特定规模的地震在未来数年到数十年之间，发生在某区域的几率，以供建筑物和公共建设设定最低防震规范。虽然部分证据表明，对某些区域的地震预报或许有实用价值，然而这些技术的可靠性既未确立，也无法重制，所以地震学家及地质学家一般认为实用的地震预测还是梦想。

争议

人们试图以各种自然现象预测地震，例如电磁场、天气状况、地震云、土壤或地下水的氡气或氢气含量、井水水位及动物行为等。

地震预测迄今仍深具争议性；一方面是因为资料不足，另一方面则缺乏能证实上述因果联系的科学理论。此外，只要做出大量预测，便容易碰巧言中。大部分的预测方法都基于几率模型；由于大地震鲜少发生，其地点与时间又相当集中，目前我们很难鉴定一次“成功”的预测是否只是侥幸而已。

2009年拉奎拉地震发生后，几位科学家因未能提出足够警告，依过失杀人罪被判6年徒刑，在欧美科学界引发一片惊慌和挞伐之声，学者警告这恐造成寒蝉效应。^[2] 厄尔斯特大学（University of Ulster）地震物理学教授史迪西（Sandy Steacy）认为：“若维持原判，这项判决将对意大利和全欧洲的地震科学造成寒蝉效应。”科学工作者关怀联盟（UCS）学者郝普恩（Michael Halpern）认为：“这项决定荒谬又危险，美国官员应该非难它，意大利总统乔治奥·纳波利塔诺（Giorgio Napolitano）应该推翻这个决定。”英国地质调查所（BGS）的穆森（Roger Musson）说：“这6名科学家说的是正确的，任何地震学家都会支持他们的说法。他们尽力提供科学的建议却被判刑，这是错的。”

预测方法

电磁波异常

实验证明，岩石在破裂之前，会释放出电磁波，然而对于如何影响到大的范围仍有许多疑问；部分研究则认为是岩石内的石英受到压力时产生的压电效应所造成；也有人认为是由于地下水位的改变所引起。 ^[3]

Demeter微型卫星

Demeter（希腊神话的女神得墨忒耳）为地震区电磁放射侦测（英文："Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions"）的缩写。Demeter卫星由法国国家太空研究中心建造，目前已观察到某类低频电磁活动与地震活跃带的关系，并在2004年9月5日日本东海地方发生面波震级7.1地震前一周观察到明显的电离层活动及温度变化^[4]。

VAN方法

VAN 是一套由 Varotsos、Alexopoulos 与 Nomicos 三位希腊学者在1980年代提出的地震预测法。此法以埋入地下的金属棍侦测地震电磁信号（英文：seismic electric signals），部分学者声称能预测大于五级的地震，震央误差在100公里以内、震度误差在0.7个单位内、时间窗口为2小时至11天。这个方法受到 Sir James Lighthill 的批判性考察^[5]，此外也在日本激起一些科学上的兴趣^[6]。

水氡异常

指地下水中氡气含量的突然大幅度增加或减少。在多次大地震前已观测到这种现象，其原因可能是地应力的变化使岩石释放出一定量的氡气，从而导致地下水中氡气含量的变化。

地震活动型态的改变

前震

发生在相近时间或空间上的一连串地震，依照发生次序可分为前震、主震和余震，难以判别主震的地震序列称之为群震。不同型态的地震序列是由于地壳非均质所引起许多大地震在来临前，断层破裂区域的地震活动会明显的增加，最著名的案例为1975年的海城地震。

动物行为

根据民间传说，一些动物能预知地震来临，特别是猫、狗、鸡、马及其他小型动物；大型动物对此则较不敏感。^{[原创研究？]}日本学者也曾对鲶鱼的行为进行长期研究。^{[来源请求]}

也有人主张动物的异常行为源于低频电磁辐射信号。科罗拉多大学的学者证实石英岩断裂时能藉压电效应产生电磁活动。这类活动可于震前在断层线上发生。根据最近的研究，电磁感应器能在统计学的意义上有效预测地震^[7]

中国曾有系统地研究了动物的异常表现，并在1974年12月预测隔年二月发生的海城地震；然而该次预测主要是依靠一系列的强烈前震。关于动物行为的报导通常模棱两可；目前还无法证明动物能预知地震，即使动物能感知P波，但地震仪对此更敏感^[8]。

案例

中国

中国地震预测主要是基于震前的异常事件，例如地下水位、动物行为或前震等等。有报道与学者统计自1975年2月4日中国地震学家曾成功预报了辽宁省海城大地震^[9]起，中国地震学家根据统计学与临震异常共预测成功并发布了短期、临震预报的地震共有28次^[10]^[11]。包括了1990年9月22日北京小汤山4级地震^[12]、1994年2月16日青海共和5.8级地震^[13]^[14]、1995年7月12日云南孟连7.3级地震^[15]、1997年4月6日新疆伽师6.3级、6.4级地震^[16]、2003年云南大姚7月21日6.2级地震、10月16日6.1级地震^[17]、2003年10月25日甘肃民乐6.1级地震^[18]等。

但是1976年7月28日唐山大地震事前虽有中长期趋势判断，但并无短期、临震预报。造成当次地震242,769到655,237人死亡以及164,851人重伤；2008年5月12日的汶川大地震，同样也无短震、临震预报，最终造成69,227到300,000人死亡，374,643人受伤，17,923人失踪。

美国

2004年初，洛杉矶加利福尼亚大学由弗拉迪米尔·波洛克带领的一群科学家预言南加州九月将有一场与2003年San Simeo地震震级相当的地震，几率是百分之五十。

到了2004年4月，加州地震预报评估委员会（CEPEC）向州政府报告“预测并不可靠，而且涉及的地域广大（12,400平方哩），所以这些结果不能作为加州采取特殊手段的正当理由。”^[19]结果在预报的时间窗口内并无明显地震。

意大利

2009年拉奎拉地震发生前一个月，一位名叫贾宝洛的实验室技术人员，根据地面增加的放射性氡气排放量，研判会有大地震发生。结果他被意大利民防单位指控危言耸听，还被移送警方侦办，罪名是制造民众恐慌。而就在贾宝洛被移送的同时，官方的专家在拉奎拉召开会议，大量接受媒体访问，保证说不会发生地震。官方的地震测报中心官员后来遭到民众指控提供不正确的资讯，7名科学家被依过失杀人罪名、求处4年徒刑。

地震预警

地震的预警监测比地震预测更可靠，其原理是侦测P波；P波在地壳中的传递速度快过具破坏力的S波及瑞利波，故可先期侦测。此法只能提早数秒（对于较深及较远的大地震，或可达数十秒）预警。现时有一套称作 QuakeGuard™ ^[20] 的系统能用这套技术自动应变，以减少人员及财产损失。

加州大学的 Richard Allen 在发表于《自然》的一篇论文中声称：在地震发生的前几秒，可以从地震仪的纪录中预判地震大小^[21]，它的结果还没被其它学者认可。若然，则地震的早期预警将能更为有效。

参考文献

^ Earthquake Prediction （页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）. Ruth Ludwin, U.S. Geological Survey.
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^ Chi-Yu King. Earthquake prediction: Electromagnetic emissions before earthquakes. Nature. 1983, 301 (377).
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^ VAN METHOD. [2008-05-13]. （原始内容存档于2008-02-08）.
^ Seiya UYEDA, The VAN Method of Short-Term Earthquake Prediction,RIKEN International Frontier Program on Earthquake Research, Tokai University. [2004-11-01]. （原始内容存档于2004-11-01）.
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^ Woith, Heiko; Petersen, Gesa M.; Hainzl, Sebastian; Dahm, Torsten. Review: Can Animals Predict Earthquakes?. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 2018-04-17. doi:10.1785/0120170313.
^ （英文）Glenn Richard. Earthquake Prediction: Haicheng, China - 1975. Earth Science Educational Resource Center. 2001 [2006年10月22日]. （原始内容存档于2006年9月4日）. 石溪大学矿物物理研究所一个讨论班的讲义
^ 鲜为人知，这些都是中国成功预报的地震案例！. www.sohu.com. [2018-12-21]. （原始内容存档于2018-12-21）.
^ 钱钢. 在地震预警问题的背后 (PDF). 《二十一世纪》双月刊 (香港中文大学). 2008, (108期): P104 [2018-12-21]. （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2018-12-21）.
^ 王, 德功. 北京地区的地震与防震. 北京: 地质出版社. 2002: P21. ISBN 9787116030367.
^ 夏玉胜. 共和5．8级地震的成功预报. 高原地震 (青海地震局). 1995, (1995年第2期): P36-P41 [2018-12-21]. （原始内容存档于2018-12-21）.
^ 张晓东. 马文静. 1994年2月16日共和5.8级地震短临预报实况. 地震 (中国地震局). 1995年, (1995年第1期): P20-P28 [2018年12月21日]. （原始内容存档于2018年12月21日）.
^ 李宣瑚、王瑜青. 1995年7月12日中缅边境7.3级地震预报成功. 国际地震动态. 1995, (1995年第9期): P25、P26 [2018年12月21日]. （原始内容存档于2018年12月21日）.
^ 朱令人. 1997年伽师地震临震预报的经验与启示. 华南地震. 1998年, (1998年第4期): P9-P16 [2018-12-21]. （原始内容存档于2018-12-21）.
^ 苏有锦. 2003年7月21日、10月16日云南大姚6．2级和6．1级地震预测预报回顾与讨论. 国际地震动态. 2004, (2004年第1期): P18-P21 [2018年12月21日]. （原始内容存档于2018年12月21日）.
^ 杨立明. 甘肃省民乐6．1级地震短期预报的简要回顾与启示. 国际地震动态. 2004, (2004年第1期): P15-P17 [2018-12-21]. （原始内容存档于2018-12-21）.
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外部链接

美国地质局对地震预测的观点（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）
潮汐力与地震的相关研究：发表于1967（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）年与1968（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）年，然而 U.S. Geological Survey: Common Myths About Earthquakes一文的观点与之相左。
唐山大地震背后的真相（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）
日本因预测地震仍有困难废除地震预知委员会（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）
《自然》文章称地震不可预测或影响日本地震预报政策（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）

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